Mediators must deal with all political actors in Tigray.
Source: Ethiopia Insight
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is commonly assumed to be the sole political actor in Tigray that can negotiate an end to the conflict that broke out in November 2020 between the region and the federal government of Ethiopia, along with its Eritrean and Amhara allies.
This is the case because TPLF has, almost exclusively, dominated the region’s politics since it was founded in 1976.
While it may be pragmatic for outsiders to neglect the other stakeholders in Tigray and push for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to bargain only with TPLF, this approach of conflict resolution is unlikely to bring lasting peace.
Pre-war dominance
TPLF’s opponents in the region identify the party’s intolerant and undemocratic culture as being the main factor that explains its nearly uncontested dominance over Tigray for decades. The party has controlled everything through its entrenched power across all public spheres, including the media, bureaucracy, security, and the judiciary.
The party is notorious for its five-to-one network, where one party member monitors five people in businesses, schools, workplaces, and even households. This system has been the source of TPLF’s control, particularly in rural areas where the state’s reach is less apparent. Establishing this repressive structure has allowed the party to suppress any dissent at the grassroots level.
A split in the TPLF leadership following the 1998-2000 border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea was the major event that led to the formation of a new opposition party in the region. In the wake of this conflict, disbanded former TPLF elites founded Arena Tigray.
To its credit, Arena made huge strides in becoming an alternative voice in the region. The party’s achievements are limited by the fact that it has never been given space to present itself freely to the public. Members have been ostracized from society and fired from their jobs. Farmers who show support for the party have been evicted from their landholdings.
To make matters worse, members, including party chairman Abraha Desta, have been sent to prison several times. Moreover, TPLF leadership and rank-and-file members have constantly used demonizing terms such as “weed” and “banda’’ (traitor) targeting Arena party. These terms are widely perceived to be a code for the elimination of the opposition party. It is therefore not a coincidence that no significant opposition party or civil society existed until very recently in Tigray.
In 2018, following the sweeping power reshuffle in Ethiopia, a different political environment started to emerge. The new leadership in Addis Abeba proved to be very hostile to the TPLF. Many of the party’s members were either removed from federal offices or faced criminal charges.
For the first time since coming to power in 1991, TPLF faced a critical threat to its survival. The party’s leaders began to take precautionary measures as the newly-formed political alliance under Abiy prepared to eliminate TPLF from power, even in its regional stronghold.
Given this precarious situation, TPLF had no choice but to tolerate various formal and informal opposition meetings that began to take place in the region. These meetings were predominantly focused on achieving greater autonomy for Tigray within the Ethiopian federation.
Many participants started criticizing TPLF’s prior role in the federal and regional governments, as well as its prevailing narratives. This, in turn, led to the formation of three new opposition parties and the emergence of a semi-independent civil society movement in Tigray.
Ascendant nationalism
Since at least 2015, the political environment in Ethiopia has been infested with people blaming Tigrayans for the quagmire the nation finds itself in. This hostile environment resulted in an increasing number of brutal attacks against Tigrayans throughout the country.
These attacks—which have been most pronounced in the Amhara region—and the media’s devastating role in propagating anti-Tigrayan sentiments, precipitated a widespread nationalist response from Tigrayan youth and intellectuals.
By and large, Tigrayan nationalism has been understood as a response to the historical Shewa-Amhara dominance. Accordingly, current nationalism in Tigray is tied to questions of identity and self-rule, including secessionist aspirations which were popular during the armed struggle against the Derg.
Many Tigrayan critics of the TPLF argue that during the armed struggle of the 1970s and 80s, TPLF used nationalism to mobilize the youth against the military junta. However, according to these critics, the party pushed aside ethno-nationalism after it captured state power in 1991.
Amid the power contestation that began in 2018, TPLF once again tried to capitalize on Tigrayan nationalism. In practice, it has failed to cope with the newly formed opposition parties like Salsay Woyane, Tigray Independent Party (TIP), and Baitona Tigray that have become the driving force of nationalism in the region.
Representing the vibrant young generation, the leaders of these opposition parties have been vocal in challenging the TPLF and the federal establishment, while demanding greater autonomy for Tigray and even independence from Ethiopia. Among them, Mehari Yohannes, the founder of TIP, a university professor, and an ardent defender of independence, is at the forefront.
Mehari’s eloquence in explaining the need for Tigrayan nationalism has attracted the attention of the youth. He emphasizes that Ethiopia’s political conundrum is structural, is ingrained in the history of coercive state formation, and reflects the imperial character its leaders continue to pursue. Mehari argues that there exists an irreconcilable clash of state-building visions between those who identify with Ethiopia and those who identify with sub-state identities.
Regional election
In a joint statement issued on 25 June 2020, the opposition parties urged the regional government to hold an election and establish an election commission despite the ruling of the House of Federation that postponed both federal and regional elections due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Apparently, there was consensus among the opposition that they would not be able to defeat TPLF in the election. Yet, the rationale for holding the election was based on the belief that it was an essential guard against the threat posed by the federal government. The parties participated in the election because they wanted to use it as a foundation for a stronger Tigrayan nationalism.
TPLF wanted to hold the regional election primarily to deny legitimacy to the federal government, which it argued had extended its term beyond the period envisaged in the constitution. TPLF was also pushing for national dialogue and negotiations that could ultimately bring it back to the center representing Tigray in a power-sharing arrangement.
To the dismay of the opposition parties, the September 2020 election did not guarantee the newly elected regional government’s legitimacy; it only heightened tensions with the federal government that led to the outbreak of war less than two months later.
In the war, the entire Tigrayan community has been ruthlessly targeted. The brutality of Eritrea’s involvement, the land grabbing by Amhara in Western Tigray, and the hatred of Tigrayans exhibited by many Ethiopians have all cemented the Tigrayan nationalist ideas propagated by the opposition parties before the start of the war.
Federal occupation
During its occupation of Tigray from November 2020 to late June 2021, the federal government adopted different approaches in dealing with Tigray’s opposition parties.
When it invited Arena to be part of its provisional administration, only a handful of party leaders agreed to join the regional cabinet. This collaboration by a few members subsequently backfired on Arena following the withdrawal of Ethiopia’s army from Mekelle in late June 2021.
By contrast, the federal government treated the three other opposition parties that have a considerable presence in the political landscape of Tigray as TPLF allies, and the National Election Board has so far refused to recognize them as they have participated in what the Board considered to be an “illegal” regional election.
About the Author
The writer seems to lack solid ground on how TPLF and the rest (Tigrayan people) are intertwined. TPLF is structurally and fundamentally the backbone of Tigrayan people because every single individual of TPLF is Tigrayan, isn’t Amahara or Oromo. This notion holds for millennia from the first “WYANE-THIRD”. The writer goes on or drag about on how TPLF dominate the Ethiopian politics from its emergence of 1976.
In fact, TPLF was a hybrid of WYANE in a modernized political structure to forge a new modernized leadership of Tigray. Never had the ambition nor the stamina to indulge the power in Ethiopian sphere merely by dominating in all out by itself. There were many political opponents who took power with TPLF to formulate EPRDF.
Nevertheless, the good will and intention of TPLF, EPRDF was emersed itself in corruption and power play even during the presence of Melese but got worst after he die in 2013. The main issue was that the “derg” dogs who were within this umbrella went handily unchecked to perpetuate the hate against Tigrayans in respond to what they have lost during their “derg” regime. The main actors where “Amhara” who have nothing but extreme hate to ward Tigrayans.
Arena, has got some support and was trying what it could do to mobilize some. But the issue was it too was biased by some diaspora old foe of TPLF who couldn’t hold productive dispute except aligning to number one enemy of Tigray just to get support in the state to come. That all exposed the bad side of Arena and not holding any truth but false framed name “oneness”.
When we come to the election, Ethiopia have broken the constitution to hold election every 5 years as it is stated on the constitution. It also threatened regions if they practice their right with fake argument of pandemic pretexted.
Tigray on the contrary argues that the straggle that it launched in “Dedebit” was for its right to practice in self-rule and experience election democratically on scheduled time. It was possible and they have shown their can did approach. That all send to the rest of the world how Tigrayans are determined and civilized in their own affair to dictate what is right on even unfavorable conditions.
There are undeniable issues in the TPLF structural leadership, and we all know that but, their tumbling effect never get them to abandonment of Tigray, they die for this nation, they are still leading hand in hand with the new generation that you claim that they have denied the power share. All three parties who participated in the election have agreed genuinely in the outcome of the vote. They are fighting alongside their fathers and obeyed the leadership unconditionally.
TPLF is going continue until its term and will open the door to the new parties either to continue as they are or perhaps some to be amalgamized in to a one formulated party that see Tigray as a future new country to emerge in the HA. That all is my view doesn’t represent TPLF or other parties but, as concerned Tigrayan I’m saying no to writers who underplay the role of TPLF in our identity.
I also would like to remind the writer that, TPLF has no ambition to hold power in Addis but, the main objectives are how to empower Tigrayan and Tigray as a NATION. We Tigrayans have suffered enough on the hands of Amhara and Eritrea over the last a year and half. That suffering is not going get out of every Tigrayan’s mind, not even for a second. I want it to remain in us so that we will not forgive our historical enemies.
ህዝቢ ትግራይ ኣብ ሓምቂ ኣሎ ሓውሐት አንታይ ትግብሪ ኣሎ