{"id":13805,"date":"2022-04-01T19:03:05","date_gmt":"2022-04-01T19:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/?p=13805"},"modified":"2022-04-01T19:03:06","modified_gmt":"2022-04-01T19:03:06","slug":"a-fragile-ceasefire-offers-hope-in-ethiopia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/?p=13805","title":{"rendered":"A fragile ceasefire offers hope in Ethiopia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

But it may collapse unless Tigray receives humanitarian aid<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: The Economist<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The road<\/small>\u00a0to peace in Ethiopia runs for about 500km through some of the most inhospitable land on earth, from Semera in Afar to Mekele, the capital of the state of Tigray (see map). Cutting it is the front line in Ethiopia\u2019s 17-month-old civil war between the forces of Abiy Ahmed, the national prime minister, and the Tigrayan People\u2019s Liberation Front (tplf<\/small>), the party-cum-militia that runs Tigray. The road is the only route authorised by the government for aid shipments into Tigray, where hundreds of thousands are starving. No food has moved along it since the middle of December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Semera-Mekele highway is thus the proving ground of the \u201cindefinite humanitarian truce\u201d that the government announced on March 24th and that Tigrayan leaders provisionally accepted. If it holds, it could help bring an end to a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives (no official figures are available) and that still threatens to tear Ethiopia apart. The first crucial test is whether aid starts moving along the main road. If it does not, then the fighting could swiftly resume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As The Economist<\/em> went to press, telecommunications were still cut off and no lorries were heading to Tigray. Aid workers say this is because the road through Afar, a region mostly under government control, is still too dangerous to use. There have been skirmishes with Tigrayan forces nearby. Many Afars are furious about Tigrayan incursions, which have left hundreds of thousands homeless and hungry. Some have attacked shipments of aid in recent weeks. \u201cFirst, feed Afar,\u201d says Mussa Adem, an opposition leader in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the problem is a lack of agreement about what the ceasefire actually means. The tplf<\/small> has indicated that aid must flow before its troops will withdraw to Tigray\u2019s borders. The government seems to think the opposite. Both are already crying foul. On March 28th the tplf<\/small> accused the government of lying about lifting its blockade. The government accused Tigrayan forces of blocking the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some suspect the government\u2019s real aim is to buy time while staving off the threat of American sanctions. \u201cYou can\u2019t call it a humanitarian truce and then condition it on a withdrawal,\u201d says a Western diplomat. That Abiy has not made visible efforts to make sure aid gets through Afar unimpeded only adds to such concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, there are some grounds for thinking that both sides are inching closer to ending the war. The tplf<\/small>, which last year seemed set to storm the capital, Addis Ababa, has since suffered setbacks on the battle field and is unable to relieve the suffering of civilians. Thousands of Tigrayans are crossing into the neighbouring Amhara region to escape hunger and drone strikes inflicted on them by government forces. \u201cI don\u2019t think they\u2019ve got much wiggle room,\u201d says a un<\/small> official, referring to the tplf<\/small>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indirect talks mediated by America and the African Union have begun bearing fruit. Military commanders have made contact and both sides have toned down their rhetoric. Fighting is much less intense than it was last year. Since January the government has released many Tigrayans from prison, including some tplf<\/small> leaders. A three-month state of emergency was lifted in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asked to explain the government\u2019s shift, a senior official from the ruling party says, \u201cDiplomatic pressure, the economy, war-weariness\u2014in that order.\u201d David Satterfield, America\u2019s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, was in Addis Ababa days before the ceasefire was announced. America has already suspended duty-free access for Ethiopian goods and two bills on further sanctions are currently before Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia\u2019s economy is collapsing. Spending on the war has exacerbated a shortage of foreign currency. Banks are running dry and factories are cutting back for want of imported materials. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine means inflation may climb from its current rate of 34%. \u201cThere is no choice but to end the war,\u201d says a central banker. \u201cThe economic consequence is beyond what the country can bear.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even so, progress towards peace may yet founder. In recent days busloads of Ethiopian troops have been seen moving north towards Tigray. tplf<\/small> leaders warn ominously of launching a new offensive should aid not arrive soon. \u201cPeople are losing patience,\u201d says a Tigrayan diplomat. The road from Afar to Tigray has a fork that leads straight back to war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

But it may collapse unless Tigray receives humanitarian aid Source: The Economist The road\u00a0to peace in Ethiopia runs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13806,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[32,76],"class_list":["post-13805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","tag-english","tag-the-economist"],"featured_image_urls":{"full":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",1280,720,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",300,169,false],"medium_large":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",640,360,false],"large":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",640,360,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",1280,720,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",1280,720,false],"morenews-large":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",825,464,false],"morenews-medium":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2.jpg",590,332,false],"woocommerce_thumbnail":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2-300x300.jpg",300,300,true],"woocommerce_single":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2-600x338.jpg",600,338,true],"woocommerce_gallery_thumbnail":["https:\/\/axumawian.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/1-2-150x150.jpg",100,100,true]},"author_info":{"info":["Axumawian Media"]},"category_info":"Article<\/a>","tag_info":"Article","comment_count":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13805"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13807,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13805\/revisions\/13807"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}