{"id":12353,"date":"2021-10-12T12:29:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-12T12:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/?p=12353"},"modified":"2021-10-13T09:39:23","modified_gmt":"2021-10-13T09:39:23","slug":"ethiopia-launches-new-offensive-on-tigray-rebels-as-famine-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/axumawian.com\/?p=12353","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia Launches New Offensive on Tigray Rebels as Famine Looms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Western officials confirmed Tigrayan reports of an assault on several fronts. Aid workers said it will intensify a dire humanitarian crisis.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: The New York Times<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

October 12, 2021<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict in northern Ethiopia has escalated sharply in recent days, as Ethiopian forces began a sweeping offensive in a bid to reverse recent gains by Tigrayan rebels, Western officials and Tigrayan leaders said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.N. officials said the attack will deepen the humanitarian crisis in a region that is plunging into the world\u2019s worst famine in a decade. With the Ethiopian government blocking aid shipments, some starving Tigrayans are eating leaves to survive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senior Western officials broadly confirmed Tigrayan accounts that the assault, which had been anticipated for weeks, started in the Amhara region, which borders Tigray to the south. But beyond that, it is hard to get a clear picture of the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strict communications blackout imposed by the government means few details about the fighting can be independently confirmed. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was sworn in for a second term last week, has declined to comment in recent days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking by phone, Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae<\/a>, a member of the central command of the Tigray forces and its leading strategist, said Ethiopian forces had begun the military operation on Friday with a bombardment of Tigrayan positions using warplanes, artillery and drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Monday, the Ethiopians switched to a ground offensive led by thousands of fighters, to be met by a Tigrayan counteroffensive, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe enemy has been preparing for months, and so have we,\u201d said General Tsadkan, who previously commanded Ethiopia\u2019s armed forces for a decade. He predicted the coming battle would be a \u201cdecisive moment\u201d for the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe ramifications will be military, political and diplomatic,\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t think this will be a protracted fight \u2014 a matter of days, most probably weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Ethiopian soldiers training in Dabat last month. Government forces have been preparing for the recent move against the Tigrayan rebels for months.Credit…Amanuel Sileshi\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

For Mr. Abiy, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, the offensive is an effort to wrest control of a brutal 11-month war that has ruined his reputation <\/a>as a peacemaker and slipped beyond his grip as the fighting spread to new areas in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Abiy has appeared increasingly isolated from international support as the United States threatens him with the prospect of sanctions, and he clashes with the U.N. leadership. Only a few African leaders have continued to support him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This month, Ethiopia expelled<\/a> seven senior U.N. officials it accused of \u201cmeddling\u201d in the nation\u2019s internal affairs and diverting aid to the Tigrayan rebels. The U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres denied those charges in unusually sharp language, telling Mr. Abiy the expulsions had no legal basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likening the situation to the devastating Somalia famine of 2011, Mr. Guterres said he warned Mr. Abiy<\/a> that Ethiopian restrictions on the delivery of aid had created a humanitarian crisis that was \u201cspiraling out of control.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over five million Tigrayans urgently need relief aid, and at least 400,000 are in famine-like conditions, the U.N. says. But barely one-tenth of required aid has reached them because Ethiopia has blocked the routes into the region, officials said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Biden administration has tried to force Mr. Abiy and the Tigrayans into peace talks by threatening sanctions against \u201cofficials and entities\u201d who block humanitarian aid and refuse to stop fighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With his latest attack, however, Mr. Abiy seems to be gambling that he can prevail using force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western officials said the Ethiopian leader had been preparing the offensive for months. He amassed new weapons from foreign suppliers and recruited tens of thousands of young Ethiopians to help fight Tigrayan forces he has described as \u201ccancer\u201d and \u201cweeds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during his inauguration ceremony in Addis Ababa last week, where he was sworn in for a second five-year term.Credit…Mulugeta Ayene\/Associated Press<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

One Western official said Mr. Abiy had acquired new drones built in Iran, Turkey and China, although it is unclear who supplied them to Ethiopia. Websites that track international air traffic have recorded dozens of cargo flights from the United Arab Emirates<\/a>, and a handful from Iran, into Ethiopian air force bases in the past six weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tigrayan leaders have accused<\/a> the U.A.E. of sending armed drones to help Mr. Abiy during the early weeks of the war<\/a> last November; Emirati officials have refused to comment. Airstrikes took out most of the Tigrayan artillery and forced its troops to retreat into the remote countryside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A more consequential question now is whether Eritrea will again rally to Mr. Abiy\u2019s side. Eritrean troops offered crucial support in the first phase of the war, until June, and faced many of the worst accusations of atrocities against civilians. The Eritreans are currently occupying Humera, a town in western Tigray, and some have deployed to Amhara, two western officials said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s unclear if they are participating in the latest fighting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tigrayan forces scored a series of surprise victories<\/a> that forced Ethiopian forces out of Tigray. In July, the Tigrayans pushed into the Amhara region, where the fighting has been centered ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A long-running dispute between Amhara and Tigray over a swath of disputed land drew Amhara militias into the fight against Tigray last November. The Tigrayans say those fighters are also participating in the latest offensives, along with regular Ethiopian troops and young men from across Ethiopia drawn by Mr. Abiy\u2019s appeal for recruits during the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But General Tsadkan, the Tigrayan commander, said he considered the autocratic leader of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, who is an old foe of the Tigrayans, as his greatest threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIsaias and his army are the major spoiler in the region,\u201d he said. \u201cIf the international community is earnestly looking for a peaceful solution, a settlement will not happen without taking care of Isaias.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
In Amba Giorgis, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, last month.Credit…Amanuel Sileshi\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Both sides face intense pressures. The Tigrayans, surrounded by enemies, risk running out of supplies soon. Mr. Abiy is wrestling with a steep economic slide that has led to soaring food prices and foreign currency shortages, which American sanctions could soon make worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopian Airlines, Africa\u2019s biggest airline and Ethiopia\u2019s flagship economic success, last week denied a report on CNN that its aircraft had been used to ship weapons and soldiers for the war in Tigray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with the newly appointed African Union envoy to Ethiopia, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, to discuss the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some African leaders are standing by Mr. Abiy. Six heads of state, mostly from the region, attended his inauguration celebrations in Addis Ababa last week. But several of the congratulatory speeches included expressions of growing concern, and urged Mr. Abiy toward peace talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEthiopia is our mother,\u201d said President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya. \u201cIf our mother is not at peace, neither can the family be at peace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The criticism of Mr. Abiy in the West is growing increasingly strident. Last week an essay<\/a> by Mark Lowcock, a former British diplomat and until recently the U.N.\u2019s humanitarian chief, accused Mr. Abiy of trying to starve the people of Tigray \u201ceither into subjugation or out of existence\u201d and warned he risked causing his country to collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAbiy\u2019s game plan cannot work,\u201d Mr. Lowcock wrote, citing what he said was a growing expert consensus. \u201cIf he tries and fails to destroy Tigray, he will be destroyed himself. If he succeeds, he will never survive the backlash that will follow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Abeba Tseganeh, 27, last month at her war-damaged house in Zarima, a village also in the Amhara region.Credit…Amanuel Sileshi\/Agence France-Presse \u2014 Getty Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Correction:<\/strong> Oct. 12, 2021<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An earlier version of this article gave an incorrect title for Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae. He is a member of the central command of the Tigray forces and its leading strategist, not its commander.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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